Expert Warns: Forcing Venezuela’s Regime Change Is a Dangerous Gamble

In 2025, the U.S. has launched dozens of strikes on alleged drug-trafficking vessels, deployed a major aircraft carrier near Venezuelan waters, and escalated its pressure campaign against Nicolás Maduro. In this episode, Phil Gunson, Senior Analyst at the International Crisis Group, argues that "Maduro won’t get scared and run away," warning that military action will not produce a stable outcome and could trigger widespread instability instead. Gunson says only a negotiated political transition offers a viable path forward: "Sometimes, of course, what happens is that the geopolitical situation changes and the external conditions become unfavorable to dictatorship, and that's what causes dictatorships to fade away or to negotiate their exit." Former MI6 Chief Sir Richard Dearlove agrees, predicting that any forced regime-change attempt "could end very badly."