Iran Endgames (ft. John Raine), Cuba in the Crosshairs, Russia-China Ties, and the Cambridge Five

When Ayatollah Khamenei died just hours into the war, Western capitals braced for the fall of Iran's regime and a popular uprising - neither arrived. So what's actually holding the region back from all-out escalation: diplomacy, or a fragile memorandum of understanding?

In this episode of One Decision, former MI6 Chief Sir Richard Dearlove and co-host journalist Kate McCann are joined by John Raine, Senior Adviser for Geopolitical Due Diligence at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), to trace the fallout from the Iran-Israel war and what stabilizing the Middle East will really require.

They dig into why a comprehensive peace deal still isn't on the table, how Western intelligence underestimated the IRGC's staying power, and what the conflict means for the wider region, from Israel's military aims to Gulf state vulnerability and the future of the Abraham Accords.

The conversation also turns to China's pledge to back Cuba's sovereignty, the 75th anniversary of the Cambridge Five spy scandal, and the latest from the war in Ukraine, including China's role in training Russian troops and North Korea's new museum memorializing its own losses in the conflict.

In this episode:

• 1:07 – Iran, Israel & Trump: The Middle East Crisis Explained
• 2:52 – Cuba, China, and US Spheres of Influence
• 6:23 – Cambridge Five: Cold War Spy Scandal Revisited
• 9:51 – Russia, North Korea, and Ukraine War Shifting
• 13:26 – Iran War: MOU vs. Formal Peace Deal Explained
• 16:55 – Why a Comprehensive Iran Deal Remains Out of Reach
• 22:41 – IRGC Resilience: How Iran's Regime Survived
• 29:08 – Who Has Influence Over Iran's IRGC?
• 33:51 – Israel's Military Objectives and Netanyahu's Agenda
• 39:36 – Gulf States' Vulnerability and Abraham Accords Future
• 45:26 – How Does the Iran Conflict End? Three Scenarios
• 49:47 – Sir Richard and Kate Discussion

Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and journalist Kate McCann (Political Editor at Times Radio).