The Race to Break China's Mineral Monopoly (ft. CSIS's Gracelin Baskaran), Poland's Defense Surge, and Hungary After Orbán

Two decades ago, China made half the world's high-performance magnets. Today it makes 94% - and processes nearly 90% of the planet's rare earth magnets. How did the West let it happen?

Dr. Gracelin Baskaran, founding director of the Critical Minerals Security Program at CSIS,joins Sir Richard Dearlove and Rosanna Lockwood to explain China's two-part strategy - securing rare earth supply worldwide while building the dominant place to process it - and why catching up is a 5-to-10-year effort rather than the 18 months some have suggested.

On how authoritarian states pull ahead, she says, "I call it the benefits of not having elections." She points to Japan's 16-year diversification effort as a model, and notes that without a demand surge - an EV uses six times more critical minerals than a gas car - many Western mines are not economic enough to stay open.

The episode also covers a potential Taiwan crisis and its effect on global mineral supply, a Pentagon report on Israeli espionage against US officials, Poland's rise as Europe's leading defense power, and the end of Orbán's government in Hungary.

In this episode:

(00:00) Intro: China's Rare Earth Minerals Takeover

(01:43) World Cup 2026 Preview

(03:50) Middle East Conflict Updates

(06:57) Israel Spying on US Officials?

(08:43) Bill Pulte Named Intelligence Director

(10:27) US APAC Strategy Shifts

(14:41) Poland Becomes Europe's Defense Power

(16:44) Hungary After Orbán's Fall

(19:57) China's Critical Minerals Chokehold

(27:12) Western Mining Supply Chain Crisis

(38:28) Frontier Markets: Africa's Mineral Race

(57:32) Taiwan Crisis and Mineral Shortages